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The pathology of setting a deadline to the earliest articulable date essentially guarantees that the schedule will be missed. Even the strategy of picking the "most likely date" is not particularly safe, as the area to the left of the peak of the curve is barely a third. That says there is a two-thirds chance of missing the deadline.
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects (book) by Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister
Language: English
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1 joshua728 235 WPM 100.0% 231 1/2 Jan. 25, 2024
2 arenasnow 209 WPM 100.0% 206 1/2 May 25, 2019
3 arenasnow2 208 WPM 98.0% N/A 1/3 Aug. 30, 2011
4 iamtyperacer 205 WPM 100.0% 201 1/3 May 2, 2021
5 typos_z 197 WPM 99.0% 193 1/2 Nov. 2, 2021
6 sahibprime 190 WPM 100.0% 187 1/2 Sept. 8, 2023
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9 lithox2 186 WPM 100.0% 183 1/2 July 27, 2021
10 goldjet30 185 WPM 99.0% 182 1/2 Oct. 4, 2020