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Racer Anouk (anoukjee)
Race Number 15
Date Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:02:13 +0000
Speed 91 WPM Try to beat?
Accuracy 99.1%
Rank 1st place (out of 5)
Opponents johnemo (3rd place) kodu (4th place) shaynamaree (2nd place)

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The pathology of setting a deadline to the earliest articulable date essentially guarantees that the schedule will be missed. Even the strategy of picking the "most likely date" is not particularly safe, as the area to the left of the peak of the curve is barely a third. That says there is a two-thirds chance of missing the deadline.
Waltzing with Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects (book) by Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister (see stats)